Friday, November 07, 2008

5 keys to a Win vs. Ark-Kansas


Last week we know was a win....it was not pretty but it was a win. USC is now bowl eligible but we need to win this game against Ark-Kansas. I have a little bit of uneasy feelings for some reason going into this game. First because the Gamecocks converted only 4-of-17 third downs and finished with 11 first downs in the UT win, their fewest since picking up 10 first downs in a 15-0 win against Mississippi State in 2006. Also Kenny McKinley was the only wide receiver to catch a pass in the UT game. And Tight end Jared Cook, the team’s leading receiver, was held without a catch for the first time this season vs. UT. I know we went into safe mode in the 2nd half....still.....another reason the game is at 1pm and we all remember the last time SC when into a day game with sleep in their eyes.....VANDY WON!

Very quietly, the Gamecocks have been able to put together a nice year after winning five of their last six games. This is the 17th meeting between South Carolina and Arkansas. The Razorbacks lead the all-time series, 10-6, but the teams have split eight games in Columbia evenly. The teams have met every year since 1992 when they both joined the Southeastern Conference. The Razorbacks have won the last two games in the series, posting a 26-20 win in Columbia in 2006, then outscoring the Gamecocks, 48-36, in a shootout last year in Fayetteville. Three of the last four games have been decided by six points or less.

I feel Carolina will win this game and here are the 5 keys to getting that win....

1. Not letting Ark-kansas establish the run....Tennessee rushed for just 34 yards, the fewest a Gamecock defense has allowed in four seasons under Spurrier. This needs to happen again. The Carolina D needs to come ready to play and stop the Ark running game. This will put pressure on Dick to step up and I am confident that against the USC secondary that we will win that battle and not allow Wright to have a repeat performance.

2. USC QB must be on target....Whomever starts just get the job done. Spread the ball around and make good decisions. Look for the TE to be open as our guys create mis-matches. I have been harping on the O line all year but now we must work with what we got. So no more blame game...play football.

3. 3rd down success for SC...Not surprisingly, the success rate of the Gamecock offense on third downs is usually linked to its winning and losing. In its six wins this season, the Carolina offense has been successful on 44.3 percent (39-of-88) of its third down conversions. Conversely, in its three losses, the USC offense has been successful just 33.3 percent of the time (12-for-36) in third down opportunities. Defensively, the Gamecocks are allowing 32.0 percent of their opponents' third down opportunity to be successful (39-for-122), which ranks fifth in the SEC and 18th in the nation. So convert on offense and stop them on defense....sounds simple enough right?

4. No TOs on Offense but create on Defense....we win when we do this simple formula. The Gamecocks are one of the nation's worst in turnover margin, ranking 12th in the SEC and 99th in the country at -0.78 per game, the defense has minimized the damage. Carolina has surrendered just 27 points following its 24 turnovers, while they have scored 65 points following their 17 takeaways.

5. USC Pressure....SC must get to Dick and not allow him to settle in the game. Constant pressure from the men up front.

PS - Make sure to get Kenny McKinley his 26 yards. That is all he needs to become South Carolina's all-time leader in career receiving yardage. He enters the Arkansas game with 2,472 career yards, trailing only Sterling Sharpe's school record of 2,497 receiving yards.


My prediction - USC 34 Ark-Kansas 13

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